For the first time in over a decade, the smartphone crown is changing hands. According to new data from Counterpoint Research, reported via Bloomberg, Apple is on track to overtake Samsung as the world’s largest smartphone maker.
If the projections hold, 2025 will be the first time since 2011 that Apple secures the number one position in global shipments. The shift is being driven by successful hardware launches and favorable market conditions. The primary engine behind this growth is the immediate success of the iPhone 17 lineup. Introduced in September, these models have resonated strongly with consumers in Apple’s two most critical markets: the United States and China.
Researchers note that the new devices have enticed a wave of upgrades, resulting in double-digit year-over-year sales growth in both regions. Additionally, a cooling of trade tensions between the US and China, combined with a depreciating dollar, has made Apple hardware more accessible in emerging markets. Counterpoint projects that iPhone shipments will grow by 10% in 2025. In contrast, Samsung is expected to see a more modest growth of 4.6%.
This disparity will propel Apple to a projected market share of 19.4% in a global market that is expected to expand by 3.3% overall. While Samsung has held the top spot for years, Apple’s strategy of premium dominance is finally translating into raw volume leadership. Counterpoint analyst Yang Wang points to a massive replacement cycle that is finally hitting its stride.
“Consumers who purchased smartphones during the Covid-19 boom are now entering their upgrade phase,” Wang explained. Furthermore, the robust secondary market is creating a pipeline for future new device sales. With 358 million secondhand iPhones sold between 2023 and the second quarter of 2025, we could expect users to upgrade to brand-new iPhones in the not too-distant-future.
The report indicates that Apple is expected to remain the top phone seller through 2029, aided by an exciting roadmap of future devices. Counterpoint highlights the expected 2026 debut of a foldable iPhone, alongside a budget-friendly iPhone 17e, as key sales drivers. Following those releases, a major design revamp rumored for 2027 could further cement Apple’s dominance.
It seems the iPhone 17 was just the beginning of a major resurgence for Apple’s hardware numbers. Are you planning to upgrade this year, or are you waiting for the rumored foldable model in 2026? Let us know in the comments below! Stay updated with the latest news on this by downloading the Appleosophy App from the App Store or by visiting our website.
