Ming-Chi Kuo from TF International out with the latest research report on Apple’s new iPhone XR. For several reasons, Kuo thinks that iPhone XR shipments from the fourth quarter of 2018 to the third quarter of 2019 will be expected to reduce by about 30 million, he gives that the ongoing trade war, sky-high prices, and competitions all cause factors. So that leaves decline to be offset by iPhone XS models.
We have reduced our iPhone XR shipment estimation from 100mn units to 70mn during the new product lifecycle (4Q18–3Q19) for the following reasons: 1) Negative impacts on consumer confidence from the trade war, especially in the Chinese market, 2) expectations from more users for more affordable XR or the dual-camera and narrower bezel design to be provided at the current price level, and 3) competition from Huawei’s Mate 20 series. We have reduced our XR shipment estimations for 4Q18, 1Q19, and 2Q19 by 30–35%, 25–30%, and 25–30% to 30–35, 20–25, and 10–15mn units, respectively.
On the other hand, the reliable analyst forecast that the overall iPhone shipment will be cutted by 15–20 percent for the first quarter of 2019. So considering Apple no longer reporting iPhone sales, it will be harder to guess how much they did sell. Apple’s stock fall over 5% thanks to Kuo’s latest research report.
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